Wildfire Outlooks & Predictions
5/1/26 Fire Environment Update
Recent rainfall across the state has significantly reduced wildfire risk. Over the past week, most areas have received more than one inch of rain, with some locations seeing over two inches. In addition, approximately 90% of the state has reached green-up, meaning vegetation is becoming less susceptible to burning.
While portions of the state are still classified as being in drought, current conditions have created a much more favorable fire environment. At this time, wildfire potential is low, and there is no immediate cause for concern.Looking ahead, the anticipated influence of El Niño in the coming weeks is expected to bring continued moisture, further supporting these improved conditions.
Planning
Although spring green-up is underway, however, the wildland fire environment is conducive to higher fire intensity and severity due to very dry fuels and the upcoming weather forecasted. Fire season is not over. Until more consistent rainfall arrives and vegetation fully greens up, risks will remain. Stay aware of current conditions and use extra caution with any burning.
REMINDER: The link for the TN drought monitor is here; we are in some form of abnormally dry to extreme drought throughout the state. Some have reported that their blow lines are not holding due to soils drying out and creeping happening across their lines.