Wildfire Outlooks & Predictions
3/31/26 Fire Environment Update
Across Tennessee, 100-hour and 1000-hour fuel moisture values remain below average, and these heavier fuels are currently exhibiting high consumption rates—generally around 80–90% in most areas. Despite this, soil moisture conditions remain relatively favorable, with Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values largely below 200 statewide. However, KBDI has been gradually increasing due to a lack of significant rainfall over the past 10 days.
One mitigating factor is the ongoing “rapid” green-up. Based on current vegetation data, approximately 65–75% of the state is showing moderate to strong green-up (50–80%+ vegetation fraction), particularly across central and eastern areas. Around 15–25% of the state remains in lighter green-up (30–50%), while only ~10% or less—primarily in localized pockets—shows limited green vegetation (<30%). This aligns well with seasonal norms and is helping to moderate fire behavior.
Relative humidity (RH) values have improved this week, with good overnight recoveries. A frontal system is expected to bring wetting rain Saturday into Sunday, but a dry airmass will follow. By Tuesday (4/7), expect warming temperatures and afternoon RH values dropping back into the 20% range.
Planning considerations: While green-up and current soil moisture are helping limit fire intensity, very dry heavier fuels and the expected return of low RH early next week will continue to support active fire behavior and increase in fire intensity. Use caution with prescribed burns, particularly after the weekend system passes and drying resumes.